The 2026 Florida Foreclosure Risk Index
Where financial pressure on Florida homeowners is building, county by county
Published on July 22nd, 2026, by John Carter | Founder, NestCash
Abstract
Florida now carries the worst foreclosure rate of any state in the country. Filings in the first half of 2026 reached 27,494, one in every 373 housing units, up 32.7 percent from the same period in 2025 and roughly 37 percent above 2024. To understand where that pressure is concentrated, we built the Florida Foreclosure Risk Index, a county-level measure that combines market softness, mortgage cost burden, mortgage delinquency, and unemployment into a single score from 0 to 100. Florida’s story is different from most states we study. The distress is broad, not tucked into a few rural corners. It runs through the big coastal metros, the fast-grown suburbs of the Interstate 4 corridor, and the storm-battered southwest coast all at once. Behind it sit three pressures that are distinctly Floridian: a property-insurance market that has become one of the most expensive in the nation, a wave of condominium special assessments working through older buildings, and a pandemic-era price boom that has stalled. This report explains the index, ranks all sixty-seven counties, and separates two things that are easy to confuse: the risk carried by the average homeowner, and the raw volume of foreclosures a county produces.
Key findings
- Florida leads the nation in foreclosures. First-half 2026 filings totaled 27,494, one in every 373 housing units, up 32.7 percent year over year, the highest foreclosure rate of any U.S. state (ATTOM Data Solutions). The state also ranked second in foreclosure starts and produced the single worst metro rate in the country.
- The pressure is everywhere, not just the metros or just the sticks. Sixteen counties land in the Elevated tier of our index, from the Florida Keys (Monroe, 64.2) to the Interstate 4 suburbs (Osceola, 59.9) to the big coastal metros (Broward, 57.6, and Miami-Dade, 53.7). Only the wealthiest and most stable markets, Leon and St. Johns, sit at the bottom.
- Our leading indicators line up with the worst realized foreclosure rates. ATTOM’s hardest-hit Florida metros, Punta Gorda (Charlotte County), Lakeland (Polk), Cape Coral (Lee), and Ocala (Marion), all land in our Elevated tier. When a leading-indicator index independently flags the same places as the realized-filing data, both become more credible.
- Housing cost burden is the engine. In Monroe County, 50.8 percent of homeowners with a mortgage spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing. In Miami-Dade it is 45.0 percent and in Broward 42.7 percent, among the heaviest cost burdens of any counties in the country (U.S. Census, American Community Survey).
- Delinquency is low but turning. Florida’s serious mortgage delinquency rate (90 or more days past due) sat at 1.1 percent in September 2025, up from 0.8 percent in early 2024 (CFPB). Polk, St. Lucie, and Hernando counties run hotter than the state as a whole.
Methodology
Data and sources
We built the index entirely from public and openly licensed data, and we cite each source at the point of use. Market conditions come from Realtor.com Economic Research (county listing data through June 2026). Housing tenure, mortgage status, cost burden, and county housing counts come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey five-year estimates. Mortgage delinquency comes from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Mortgage Performance Trends (latest data September 2025). Statewide and metropolitan foreclosure trends come from ATTOM Data Solutions’ published foreclosure market reports. Every dataset we used is free and publicly available, and every figure in this report traces back to one of the sources above.
Building the index
The Florida Foreclosure Risk Index is a weighted blend of four signals, each chosen because it precedes or predicts foreclosure among homeowners who carry a mortgage:
35%
The share of active listings with a price cut and the median days a home sits on the market. A soft market matters because a homeowner in trouble who cannot sell quickly has fewer ways to avoid foreclosure.
30%
The share of owners with a mortgage who spend more than 30 percent of household income on housing. This is direct payment stress on the exact population that can be foreclosed on.
20%
The 90-day-or-more delinquency rate, the clearest early warning that foreclosures are coming.
15%
A secondary driver. We hold its weight down deliberately, because unemployment also captures renters and therefore dilutes a signal meant to describe homeowners.
We normalized each signal across the sixty-seven counties on a 0-to-1 scale, where 0 is the lowest value in Florida and 1 is the highest, then applied the weights above and multiplied by 100. The result is a relative score: it ranks counties against one another within Florida, not against a national or absolute standard. We then graded each county by its score, Elevated for a score of 50 or above, Moderate for 44 to 49.9, and Lower for anything below 44. Sixteen counties land in the Elevated tier, sixteen in Moderate, and thirty-five in Lower.
Limitations
Three limits are worth stating plainly. First, the index is relative. A Lower grade means lower risk than other Florida counties, not low risk in absolute terms, and in a state leading the nation in foreclosures that distinction matters. Second, the CFPB reports county delinquency only where a county has at least 1,000 mortgages, so for thirty-two of Florida’s smaller counties we substituted the statewide delinquency rate. Because that component carries only 20 percent of the weight, the substitution has a modest effect on the rankings. Third, the index measures leading pressure, not completed foreclosures. Where our scores and realized foreclosure rates disagree, we say so rather than force a match.
Findings
The index: distress runs coast to coast
Ranked from most to least risk, the index shows a Florida under pressure in almost every region at once, which is what sets it apart from most states.
The sixteen Elevated counties do not fit one profile. Monroe, the Florida Keys, tops the list at 64.2 on the strength of the heaviest housing cost burden in the state. Lafayette, a tiny rural county in the north, follows at 62.5 with the highest share of price-cut listings and double-digit unemployment. St. Lucie (60.8) and Osceola (59.9), fast-grown suburbs on either side of the peninsula, come next. Charlotte (58.0), on the storm-scarred southwest coast, sits fifth. And then come the giants: Broward at 57.6 and Miami-Dade at 53.7. Very few states put their two largest urban counties near the top of a distress ranking. Florida does.
At the other end, Leon (26.1) and St. Johns (26.6) score lowest. Leon is the state capital, anchored by government employment and Florida State University, a combination that keeps incomes steady and cost burden low. St. Johns, just south of Jacksonville, is one of the wealthiest counties in the state. Stable jobs and deep household balance sheets are exactly what the index rewards with a low score.
The counties under the most pressure
Monroe (index 64.2, Elevated). The Florida Keys carry the heaviest housing cost burden in the state by a wide margin: 50.8 percent of mortgaged homeowners spend more than 30 percent of income on housing. Homes here are expensive and inventory moves slowly, a median 103 days on market. Monroe’s unemployment is low and its delinquency is unremarkable, so this is a pure affordability squeeze. When half of mortgaged owners are already stretched past the cost-burden line, insurance and assessment shocks land hard.
Lafayette (index 62.5, Elevated). A small rural county in north Florida, Lafayette posts the highest share of price-cut listings in the state, 36.3 percent, alongside the highest unemployment, 10.9 percent, and a slow market at 100 days. This is thin-market distress: few buyers, a soft resale channel, and a weak local job base leave a struggling owner with very few exits.
St. Lucie (index 60.8, Elevated). On the Treasure Coast north of Palm Beach, St. Lucie pairs a high cost burden (38.7 percent) with one of the highest serious delinquency rates we found in the state at 1.8 percent. It is one of the pandemic-boom suburbs where prices ran up fast, and where owners who bought or refinanced near the peak now carry payments that outrun local incomes.
Osceola (index 59.9, Elevated). Osceola, in the Interstate 4 corridor southeast of Orlando, is one of the counties ATTOM flagged with the worst realized foreclosure rate in the state in June. Our index agrees: a 38.7 percent cost burden, a serious delinquency rate of 1.6 percent, and a softening market combine into one of the highest scores in Florida. This is the suburban distress at the center of the state made visible.
Charlotte (index 58.0, Elevated). Charlotte County, home to Punta Gorda, recorded the worst foreclosure rate of any metropolitan area in the entire United States in the first half of 2026. It sits on the southwest coast that took the brunt of recent hurricanes, and it shows the aftermath in the data: a 40.3 percent cost burden and a slow, thin market at 95 days. Rebuilding costs and insurance are doing here what a recession does elsewhere.
Broward and Miami-Dade (index 57.6 and 53.7, Elevated). South Florida’s two largest counties both land in the Elevated tier, which is the finding that most separates Florida from other states we have studied. Their unemployment is low and their markets are not especially slow, but their cost burdens are extreme, 42.7 percent in Broward and 45.0 percent in Miami-Dade, among the highest in the nation. In a market this expensive, a homeowner does not need to lose a job to fall behind. A doubled insurance premium or a five-figure condominium assessment is enough.
The metros are the story here
In most states, the largest urban county is the safest, because deep job markets and diverse economies protect homeowners. That was true of Arizona, where Phoenix and Maricopa County scored lowest in our first index. Florida breaks the pattern. Broward, Miami-Dade, and Polk (Lakeland) all score in the Elevated tier, and none of them are protected by their size.
The reason is cost, not employment. South Florida’s homeowners are not losing their jobs in unusual numbers. They are paying more of what they earn to keep the homes they already own, because home prices, property taxes, insurance, and condominium assessments have all climbed at once. That combination puts a large, dense population of owners close to the edge, which is exactly the condition an index built on cost burden is designed to catch.
Leading indicators against realized filings
We tested our index against ATTOM’s published foreclosure-rate rankings, which reflect actual filings rather than the leading signals we use, and the alignment is strong. ATTOM’s four hardest-hit Florida metros in the first half of 2026 were Punta Gorda, Lakeland, Cape Coral, and Ocala. Every one lands in our Elevated tier: Charlotte County (Punta Gorda) at 58.0, Polk (Lakeland) at 56.2, Lee (Cape Coral) at 50.2, and Marion (Ocala) at 50.7. Osceola, which ATTOM named among the worst counties by rate in June, sits fourth on our list.
When a set of leading indicators independently flags the same places that the realized-filing data ranks worst, both measures gain credibility. The pressure our index is reading is showing up in completed foreclosures, not just in theory.
Risk versus volume
Risk per homeowner and total foreclosure volume are different measurements, and it helps to keep them apart. Miami-Dade and Broward hold far more mortgaged homes than any other counties in Florida, so even at their Elevated rates they generate the largest raw number of filings in the state. Monroe, which tops our risk index, is tiny by comparison and will never produce many foreclosures in absolute terms no matter how stretched its owners are.
What makes Florida unusual is that risk and volume do not fully pull apart the way they did in Arizona. There, the highest-volume county carried the lowest risk. In Florida, the big population centers are both high-volume and high-risk, which is a large part of why the state now leads the nation. For a homeowner deciding what their own exposure looks like, the risk index is the relevant number. For anyone sizing the market, volume is. We report both and caution against collapsing them into one claim.
What is driving the 2026 rise
Florida’s surge is not a single event. It is several pressures stacking on the same homeowners at the same time.
The first is insurance. Florida has become one of the most expensive states in the country to insure a home. Premiums have climbed steeply, several carriers have pulled back from the state, and the effective cost of owning has risen even for people whose mortgage payment never changed. Insurance does not show up as a line in a delinquency file, but it shows up in cost burden, and cost burden is the heaviest-weighted homeowner signal in our index.
The second is condominiums. After the 2021 Surfside collapse, Florida law now requires older condominium buildings to complete structural inspections and fully fund their reserves. That has triggered large special assessments across the state, sometimes tens of thousands of dollars per unit, landing on owners who budgeted for a monthly fee and not a lump sum. For an owner already near the cost-burden line, an assessment of that size is the shock that starts the clock.
The third is the boom unwinding. Prices ran up hard through the pandemic as buyers moved in, and that run-up has stalled. Owners who bought or refinanced near the peak now carry payments sized to peak prices while the resale market has cooled, and mortgage rates that stayed higher for longer have removed the refinance escape valve that used to keep filings down. Serious delinquency has already ticked up from 0.8 to 1.1 percent since early 2024, a small move in absolute terms but a clear direction.
The rest-of-2026 outlook
We offer the following as a projection, not a forecast dressed up as certainty, and we show the method so it can be judged.
Florida recorded 27,494 foreclosure filings in the first half of 2026. If the second half simply matches the first, the state finishes the year near 55,000 filings. Because filings have accelerated through recent quarters rather than held flat, and because the underlying pressures, rising delinquency, extreme cost burden, insurance and assessment shocks, all point the same direction, we treat 55,000 as a floor. A reasonable range for full-year 2026 is 55,000 to 62,000 filings, which would keep Florida at or near the worst foreclosure rate in the country.
Two things temper that. First, the national base is still low by historical standards, and Florida is rising off that same suppressed floor even as it outpaces the country. Second, serious delinquency, the truest early signal, remains just above 1 percent. We expect a steady tightening through the rest of 2026, concentrated in the counties above, rather than a sudden crash. The distress is real and broad, but it is building at the pace of an affordability squeeze, not a financial-system failure.
If you are a Florida homeowner facing foreclosure
This report is a market analysis, not legal advice, but the data points to a few things worth knowing. Florida is a judicial foreclosure state, which means a lender must take you to court to foreclose, and the case runs through a county circuit court. In practice that gives Florida homeowners more time than owners in states where foreclosure happens outside of court, often many months from the first missed payment to a final judgment and sale.
That time is worth using. Owners generally have more options than they realize: reinstating the loan by catching up on missed payments, applying for a modification, or selling the home before the sale to pay off the balance and protect their credit. A sale ahead of a foreclosure judgment is often the cleanest outcome, because a completed foreclosure stays on a credit report for seven years while a sale does not. NestCash works with Florida homeowners in exactly this situation. Our guide on how to sell a house in foreclosure walks through the timeline and the choices in more detail.
The full data
| Rank | County | Risk Index | Grade | Price-cut share | Median DOM | Cost burden | 90+ delinquency | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monroe | 64.2 | Elevated | 16.5% | 103 | 50.8% | 1.1%* | 2.9% |
| 2 | Lafayette | 62.5 | Elevated | 36.3% | 100 | 24.0% | 1.1%* | 10.9% |
| 3 | St. Lucie | 60.8 | Elevated | 18.8% | 75 | 38.7% | 1.8% | 6.1% |
| 4 | Osceola | 59.9 | Elevated | 19.9% | 83 | 38.7% | 1.6% | 5.4% |
| 5 | Charlotte | 58.0 | Elevated | 18.8% | 95 | 40.3% | 1.1%* | 5.4% |
| 6 | DeSoto | 57.7 | Elevated | 18.4% | 99 | 30.3% | 1.1%* | 9.5% |
| 7 | Broward | 57.6 | Elevated | 16.5% | 82 | 42.7% | 1.3% | 5.4% |
| 8 | Polk | 56.2 | Elevated | 21.1% | 77 | 34.3% | 1.8% | 4.8% |
| 9 | Citrus | 54.6 | Elevated | 24.5% | 78 | 33.3% | 1.4% | 6.4% |
| 10 | Miami-Dade | 53.7 | Elevated | 12.2% | 86 | 45.0% | 1.0% | 4.6% |
| 11 | Hernando | 53.2 | Elevated | 25.4% | 67 | 29.9% | 1.9% | 5.3% |
| 12 | Franklin | 51.1 | Elevated | 16.3% | 92 | 28.3% | 1.1%* | 8.5% |
| 13 | Marion | 50.7 | Elevated | 20.2% | 78 | 32.6% | 1.5% | 4.8% |
| 14 | Putnam | 50.3 | Elevated | 24.7% | 73 | 32.6% | 1.1%* | 7.4% |
| 15 | Lee | 50.2 | Elevated | 20.8% | 90 | 36.7% | 1.0% | 4.0% |
| 16 | Lake | 50.1 | Elevated | 23.2% | 72 | 33.9% | 1.4% | 5.0% |
| 17 | Hardee | 49.8 | Moderate | 25.7% | 101 | 24.5% | 1.1%* | 5.9% |
| 18 | Collier | 49.3 | Moderate | 13.5% | 102 | 41.1% | 0.6% | 3.9% |
| 19 | Gilchrist | 48.5 | Moderate | 28.6% | 86 | 32.0% | 1.1%* | 3.5% |
| 20 | Levy | 48.3 | Moderate | 21.6% | 87 | 33.5% | 1.1%* | 4.1% |
| 21 | Volusia | 48.3 | Moderate | 22.5% | 74 | 33.3% | 1.4% | 4.1% |
| 22 | Walton | 48.3 | Moderate | 18.2% | 89 | 32.7% | 1.1%* | 4.9% |
| 23 | Palm Beach | 48.0 | Moderate | 16.0% | 77 | 39.6% | 0.9% | 5.5% |
| 24 | Dixie | 47.1 | Moderate | 13.7% | 84 | 38.6% | 1.1%* | 3.3% |
| 25 | Madison | 46.6 | Moderate | 24.9% | 69 | 33.1% | 1.1%* | 5.8% |
| 26 | Jackson | 45.9 | Moderate | 20.7% | 86 | 30.7% | 1.1%* | 4.5% |
| 27 | Suwannee | 45.8 | Moderate | 13.5% | 81 | 32.1% | 1.1%* | 6.3% |
| 28 | Highlands | 45.4 | Moderate | 19.7% | 81 | 28.5% | 1.1%* | 6.4% |
| 29 | Columbia | 44.7 | Moderate | 25.4% | 87 | 25.1% | 1.1%* | 5.3% |
| 30 | Sarasota | 44.6 | Moderate | 18.2% | 86 | 35.1% | 0.9% | 3.7% |
| 31 | Escambia | 44.5 | Moderate | 22.9% | 64 | 28.6% | 1.4% | 5.9% |
| 32 | Hendry | 44.3 | Moderate | 19.5% | 83 | 30.8% | 1.1%* | 4.4% |
| 33 | Pasco | 43.8 | Lower | 25.9% | 66 | 32.3% | 1.1%* | 4.9% |
| 34 | Hamilton | 43.4 | Lower | 10.8% | 66 | 35.3% | 1.1%* | 6.7% |
| 35 | Jefferson | 43.2 | Lower | 11.9% | 63 | 34.2% | 1.1%* | 7.4% |
| 36 | Gulf | 42.8 | Lower | 17.1% | 90 | 31.4% | 1.1%* | 2.6% |
| 37 | Bradford | 42.6 | Lower | 30.1% | 70 | 27.9% | 1.1%* | 4.7% |
| 38 | Pinellas | 42.5 | Lower | 26.1% | 76 | 34.3% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 39 | Gadsden | 41.5 | Lower | 15.7% | 74 | 31.4% | 1.1%* | 5.0% |
| 40 | Indian River | 41.0 | Lower | 16.8% | 85 | 33.4% | 0.7% | 4.5% |
| 41 | Hillsborough | 40.9 | Lower | 26.9% | 63 | 30.5% | 1.1%* | 4.5% |
| 42 | Okeechobee | 40.6 | Lower | 12.1% | 85 | 29.3% | 1.1%* | 4.4% |
| 43 | Bay | 40.4 | Lower | 22.5% | 85 | 31.3% | 0.7% | 3.9% |
| 44 | Duval | 40.4 | Lower | 24.4% | 57 | 30.2% | 1.3% | 4.5% |
| 45 | Union | 40.4 | Lower | 42.4% | 78 | 16.4% | 1.1%* | 4.8% |
| 46 | Flagler | 40.3 | Lower | 21.3% | 73 | 35.1% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 47 | Manatee | 40.2 | Lower | 19.6% | 84 | 32.9% | 0.6% | 4.6% |
| 48 | Taylor | 39.7 | Lower | 21.6% | 70 | 27.2% | 1.1%* | 5.4% |
| 49 | Glades | 39.6 | Lower | 5.1% | 89 | 24.4% | 1.1%* | 7.1% |
| 50 | Orange | 39.2 | Lower | 21.8% | 66 | 32.3% | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| 51 | Baker | 38.8 | Lower | 35.7% | 65 | 23.2% | 1.1%* | 4.5% |
| 52 | Calhoun | 37.7 | Lower | 14.7% | 69 | 23.1% | 1.1%* | 8.0% |
| 53 | Okaloosa | 37.7 | Lower | 20.4% | 75 | 31.5% | 0.8% | 3.8% |
| 54 | Brevard | 37.6 | Lower | 22.6% | 66 | 31.6% | 0.8% | 4.8% |
| 55 | Nassau | 37.1 | Lower | 20.4% | 71 | 26.2% | 1.1%* | 4.5% |
| 56 | Liberty | 37.0 | Lower | 0.0% | 76 | 29.6% | 1.1%* | 6.6% |
| 57 | Sumter | 36.5 | Lower | 23.4% | 62 | 34.7% | 0.5% | 5.4% |
| 58 | Martin | 36.4 | Lower | 17.7% | 75 | 35.2% | 0.4% | 4.9% |
| 59 | Washington | 35.0 | Lower | 21.8% | 71 | 25.1% | 1.1%* | 3.6% |
| 60 | Santa Rosa | 34.6 | Lower | 18.4% | 59 | 25.7% | 1.3% | 4.5% |
| 61 | Holmes | 34.2 | Lower | 8.7% | 64 | 31.0% | 1.1%* | 4.5% |
| 62 | Seminole | 34.2 | Lower | 26.9% | 57 | 30.2% | 0.8% | 4.2% |
| 63 | Clay | 33.1 | Lower | 26.0% | 55 | 26.3% | 1.1%* | 3.8% |
| 64 | Alachua | 31.7 | Lower | 21.1% | 68 | 25.6% | 0.8% | 4.4% |
| 65 | Wakulla | 28.9 | Lower | 15.4% | 55 | 27.6% | 1.1%* | 3.3% |
| 66 | St. Johns | 26.6 | Lower | 22.3% | 61 | 27.1% | 0.6% | 3.3% |
| 67 | Leon | 26.1 | Lower | 17.4% | 48 | 24.0% | 0.9% | 5.7% |
*County-level delinquency was unavailable, so the Florida statewide rate is used. See Methodology.
What we will watch
We plan to update this index quarterly. Three things will tell us whether Florida’s tightening is turning into something larger: the serious delinquency rate, which is the earliest honest signal and has already begun to climb, whether the insurance and condominium-assessment pressures keep pushing cost burden higher in the coastal metros, and whether the counties where our index runs ahead of realized filings begin to see those filings arrive. Florida already leads the nation. The question the next few quarters will answer is whether it pulls further ahead or plateaus.
Sources and data
- Foreclosure activity and trend. ATTOM Data Solutions, 2026 Mid-Year U.S. Foreclosure Market Report and Foreclosure Rates by State. Used for statewide and metropolitan filing counts and rates.
- Housing market softness. Realtor.com Economic Research, county inventory core metrics through June 2026. Used for the price-cut share, median days on market, and active listing counts.
- Housing, mortgage status, and cost burden. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey five-year estimates. Used for county housing counts, the mortgaged-owner universe, housing cost burden, and the denominators behind the rates.
- Mortgage delinquency. CFPB Mortgage Performance Trends, data through September 2025. Used for the 30-to-89 day and 90-or-more day delinquency rates.
About NestCash
NestCash buys houses for cash across eleven states, including throughout Florida. We publish original housing research to help homeowners, buyers, and investors understand the markets we work in. This report may be cited and its charts embedded with attribution to NestCash.
John is the Founder of NestCash and a leading voice in real estate investing and housing market strategy. With experience across AZ, FL, CO, MI, IL, TX, PA, NC, OH, TN, and GA, he helps buyers, sellers, and investors make smarter decisions using real-world insight and market data.